Having repeatedly experimented with political change since 1977, the country has developed an uncanny knack of reverting to past certitudes.Over an year ago Atal Behari Vajpayee was the beneficiary of this cyclical process.But with the government losing no confidence motion in parliament by just a single vote and country heading for another elections the question is yet to be answered whether the next govt. will be a stable one or will the history will repeat itself.
The Opinion poll conducted by ORG-MARG in dec.1998 had one powerful message : the people have been bitten by the change bug yet again. In a spectacular turn of events, 31% of voters now feel that Sonia will make the best prime minister today. An year ago, she was favored by 17%. Incumbency, a factor that adds to a sitting prime minsiter's appeal, has not come to Vajpayee's rescue vis-a-vis his prime opponent.
For the dejected band of Congressmen who saw in the Nehru-Gandhi name the only hope of restoring its status as un umbrella national party, the installation of Sonia Gandhi as the undisputed leader is a gamble that that will pay or not is yet to be seen. Despite her popularity, there remains a nagging doubt about Sonia's leadership qualities. In the previous mid term opinion polls, the popularity ratings of Indira and Rajiv far exceeded the Congress votes. With Sonia at the helm, the party enjoys the popularity higher than its leader and only 55% of those who voted for the Congress in 1998, believes she is the best choice for Prime Minister.
To restore his government's credibility and woo voters away from the congress, Vajpayee needs a measure of stability. With the polls indicating that J.Jayalalita's popularity in Tamil Nadu has not been affected by her shenanigans, the Prime Minister should expect no respite from his most difficult coalition partner . For Vajpayee, the gloomy opinion poll has only three points of reassurance .First, despite a low 20% positive rating of his government , 34% rated the Prime Minister's own performance as good . Only 27% want the BJP led coalition government to be instantly replaced with a congress one and only 18% favour a snap poll. With 37% in favour of the present government continuing, there seems a willingness to give Vajpayee's government a chance to redeem himself.Even the so called THIRD FRONT may oblige because it's poll prospects look as dismal the BJP's. This unlikely convergence of interests could put a premature general election on hold. Finally past experience of opinion polls suggest public opinion is volatile and prone to radical shifts. The present opinion poll was conducted after the congress victories in Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and reflected the political buzz of the moment. IF Prime Minister begins sending signals that he is decisively in command and if the ruling coalition stops pulling in seperate ways ,that buzz could well change. Equally, it will take only minor misdemeanours for the slide to turn into a collapse.
BJP Vs OTHER PARTIES IN FEB'98 AND NOW.
SONIA GANDHI 31
ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE 27
MULAYAM SINGH YADAV 2
DON'T KNOW 23
CONGRESS 45
BJP 22
DON'T KNOW 11
{rest don't know}
CONGRESS 48
BJP 21
DON'T KNOW 12
{rest other parties}
(all figures in percentage)
YES 37
BE REPLACED WITH A CONGRESS LED GOVT. 27
BE REPLACED WITH A UNITED FRONT. 4
GO FOR FRESH ELECTIONS. 18
SINGLE PARTY 78
COALITIONS 15
{rest don't know}
-all figures in percentage.
Rising Prices 55
Unemployment 21
Corruption 9
Law and Order 5
Stable Union Government 5
National Security 5
{rest:don't know}
-all figures in percentage.
YES 53
NO 47
how have these tests affected india?
They have Hurt 30
they have Helped 45
{rest don't know}
YES 77
NO 12
{rest don't know}
YES 50
NO 41
{rest don't know}
PARTIES FEB 1998 NOW
BJP & allies 252 135
INC & allies 142 305
(UF) 112 57
OTHERS 41 60
REGIONAL BREAK UP.
PARTIES NORTH SOUTH EAST WEST
feb'98 now feb'98 now feb'98 now feb'98 now
BJP 88 35-40 50 33-38 53 30-35 61 24-28
+allies
CONG 23 90-100 44 65-70 26 55-65 56 90-95
+allies
OTHERS 35 13-20 38 25-30 61 55-65 1 0-5
WHO WILL MAKE THE BEST PRIME MINISTER?
WHICH PARTY CAN SOLVE INDIA'S PROBLEMS?
WHICH PARTY CAN GIVE STABLE GOVERNMENT?
SHOULD THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT CONTINUE IN OFFICE?
WHAT TYPE OF GOVERNMENT IS THE BEST?
WHICH ISSUES BOTHER YOU THE MOST?
HAVE YOU HEARD OF POKHRAN NUCLEAR TESTS?
SHOULD THE SINGING OF VANDE MATARAM BE MADE COMPULSORY IN SCHOOLS?
DO YOU SUPPORT A UNIFORM CIVIL CODE?